WELCOME WORD

Donald Trump’s inauguration as the United States’ 47th president has done little, so far, to reduce the global volatility we see both politically and economically. If anything, he has augmented the uncertainty the world faces today. Those who have studied his distributive (“I win you lose”) rather than integrative (“how do we all gain”) approach to negotiation and diplomacy have noted how difficult it will be for his administration to really garner the sort of collaborative approach to the world’s problems that is sorely needed. Politics is not a real estate deal. There is only one Canada – if you deal with your closest neighbour and partner in a way that they lose, you can’t go and find another Canada to trade or deal with. Everybody becomes more insular, and everybody will likely become poorer.

During his first term, Trump’s administration demonstrated a somewhat unfocused approach towards Central Asia, with minimal substantive changes in bilateral relations. If anything it could be described as diplomatic neglect of the region. Rex Tillerson, Trump’s then Secretary of State, did not focus on meeting with Central Asian leaders.

However, Trump’s second term, will need a change in focus. A more pragmatic and business-oriented approach, emphasizing economic co-operation and regional security mechanisms if he is to counter the influence of China and Russia in the region while addressing geopolitical challenges in Afghanistan. If Trump does shift his policy in Central Asia, then there are potential opportunities for Central Asian countries to enhance their bilateral relations with the United States and strengthen their multi-vector foreign policy strategies.

China, nonetheless, remains the region’s largest trading partner, hitting $89 billion in 2023 compared to $54 billion with the EU, $44 billion with Russia and a meagre $4 billion with the United States. Although the EU’s share of trade is higher than Russia, its geographically near neighbour, Russia remains a more robust and reliable partner. There are reasons to believe that a significant share of the EU trade is actually transhipments to Russia that aim to circumvent Western sanctions. Georgia plays a critical role in facilitating trade from the West, but the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute over what Baku terms the “Zangezur Corridor” poses challenges for this route in the future. Unless it can be resolved, China will be the biggest winner and that will not sit well with the Trump Administration.

The US will have to make some tough, and potentially controversial, choices as to whether handicapping China is more important than the Russian “problem”. Russian sanctions haven’t worked as punitively as intended. As noted above, trade with Russia has boomed, and the EU trade routes have likely facilitated this indirectly. If the US fails to act, then China’s position in the region will inevitably become more dominant, providing easier access to energy and minerals and providing a suitable conduit for increasing trade with Iran. China’s existing dependence on energy imports by sea provides the US Navy significant leverage in any potential conflict with China, including via a blockade of the Malacca Strait chokepoint.

When it comes to investments, Central Asia tends not to rely too heavily on the US, having had declining relations over recent years and seeking investment partners through international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Kazakhstan might be a little more susceptible, however, due to its reliance on major US investors.

Finally, Trump’s decision to freeze foreign aid will have some impact on development of civil society and improving the region’s stability and prosperity (albeit it is not the major donor to the region). It would likely have the greatest impact on Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

One thing for sure is that the rollercoaster continues and it Is sure to have plenty of bumps and loops before any sense of stability can be reached.

As the Navruz holidays approach, may I take this opportunity from all of us at OCA Magazine to wish you a Happy Navruz! Enjoy the issue.

NICK ROWAN
EDITOR–IN–CHIEF
OPEN CENTRAL ASIA MAGAZINE